Commentary - Jan 15, 2005

John Henning

Election 2004 and the US Job Market - Seeing through the fog

Although the overall economy has been improving steadily since the beginning of the year, the job market has not experienced significant growth and unemployment rates have remained virtually unchanged for several months.

The US job market is currently caught in a political "fog" that is likely to last until after the November general election. While not intentionally resting their hiring decisions on the outcome of the election, many employers are looking for more clarity in November, D ecember and especially January of next year before moving ahead with plans to expand their workforce. On the whole, businesses don't seem to be overly concerned with which candidate wins the presidency, but with polls showing the race in a statistical dead heat, business leaders simply want the uncertainty resolved.

Some companies however, are already experiencing strong growth that is allowing them to start beefing up their payrolls again. The Financial Services sector in particular is currently the strongest in the overall job market. If the job market does improve significantly in early 2005, that could result in many employees looking for new positions.

Many employees who have wanted to make a change for the past 2-3 years will perceive a higher degree of confidence in the job market that will spur them to take on the risk of leaving their current positions for new opportunities. This in turn may spark increased competition among employers to work harder to retain their current employees. But this does not necessarily mean that employees can expect higher salaries.

While employers are evaluating their best employees and looking for alternatives to retain them, many will be looking at so-called "soft" benefits, such as flex-time work schedules, generous paid leave and even on-site child care or telecommuting options.

Some industries are already scrambling for talent, election or not. In accounting, finance and Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) positions, we are already seeing trends that indicate there is not a surplus of candidates. People with training in these areas just aren't lining up at the door anymore.

With the potential for more competition in the job market, analysts say now is the time for employees to prepare by updating résumés and job skills. For employees in the job market, the key is to stay prepped and ready. Being cautious and not too optimistic, they should recognize that the job market could turn significantly in the first quarter of next year.

As always, people who are doing their homework are in the best position — and this applies to both employers and prospective candidates, as well as the presidential candidates!

About Granite Solutions Groupe

Granite Solutions Groupe (Granite) is a San Francisco based recruiting firm that specializes in recruiting and placing highly-skilled senior-level Project Managers, Business Analysts and IT Managers at global firms throughout the financial services and IT Market. Contact them online at www.granitesolutionsgroupe.com.